Occam's Razor

It’s probably fair to say that yesterday’s midterms lived up to nobody’s expectations, except perhaps the Cook Political Report’s. They did a pretty good job of calling the House, which Democrats now run. The way it looks the morning after, Democrats should take the chamber 228 – 207. After the 2016 election, Democrats were behind 194-241; so 34 seats were flipped if these results hold. 218 were needed, so they will probably end up with 10 extra seats. That’s certainly a huge improvement and ends eight years of being out of power, but wasn’t quite the tidal wave Democrats were hoping for. Maybe it was a high tide instead.

The Senate results were a bummer for Democrats, but really it should not have been unexpected. Several contests are still too close to call, but if things hold up the 51 – 49 Republican majority will expand to 53 – 47, a two seat pickup. It was a crazily bad year for Senate Democrats to just retain what they had. 34 seats were in play and Democratic incumbents held 25 of them. Five of these incumbent Democrats were in deep red states (Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia and North Dakota). Democrats retained only West Virginia and Montana. They narrowly missed in Arizona and Montana but picked up Nevada. In a big wave they might have retained their seats. Trump’s rallies and constant polarization were successful in keeping these states red. If you add up all the votes cast in these Senate elections, Democrats outpolled Republicans by ten million votes. But in a country where Montana has the same clout in the Senate as California, it didn’t matter. Geography was the Republicans’ friend last night and was the primary factor in their wins. 2020 won’t be so kind to Republicans. In 2020, 21 Republican seats are up for grabs versus 11 Democratic seats. In 2022, 22 Republican seats are up for grabs vs. 12 Democratic seats. So it’s unlikely that their majority will persist beyond 2020, in spite of having geography in their favor. Some losses though suggested hints that the tide may turn in a few years. Beto O’Rourke lost by less than three points to Ted Cruz. Texas is definitely purpling up as indicated by a number of down ballot House races Democrats picked up, most notable TX-32 with Pete Sessions’ loss.

The governors’ races were opposite of the Senate races. 36 seats were in play, and Democrats controlled only 9 governorships. There was nowhere for Democrats to go but up. Some wins were huge for Democrats: Scott Walker was thrown out in Wisconsin; Kris Kobach lost his race in the deeply red state of Kansas. The big disappointments were in Georgia and Florida, where wins by Kemp and DeSantis might well be due to voter suppression. Some voters in Georgia waited five hours to vote and you would be correct to guess these were not in Republican strongholds. Both wins suggest the South still has plenty of racism. One plus for Democrats in Florida: a referendum that passed will allow ex-felons to vote. This might be a significant advantage for them in 2020. Overall, Democrats did well with governorships, now controlling 23 of 50, a net pickup of seven seats.

In state legislature races, Democrats flipped four state senates (Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and New York) and two state houses (Minnesota and New Hampshire). Democrats now control New York’s legislature and governorship, and the New Hampshire’s legislature too. Republicans flipped no state houses. Overall though Republicans still have a huge majority, controlling state senates 30 – 18 and state houses 29 – 20.

For me the biggest disappointment of the night were in Georgia and Florida. It’s still possible Stacey Abrams will pull out a win in Georgia, but it’s unlikely. Some races look lost by tiny margins, particularly Jon Tester’s seat in Montana. But there is plenty for Democrats to celebrate elsewhere. The Nevada senate seat was a sound win for Democrat Jacky Rosen. Nevada is turning into a reliably blue state. In Virginia U.S. house races, Democrats triumphed in a number of squeaker contests, including VA-2 and VA-7. I used to live in VA-10 and was thrilled that Jennifer Waxton soundly trounced incumbent Barbara Comstock with an 11-point win. Democrats flipped this nearly forty-year red seat to blue, and blue is where it will probably remain as it covers much of Fairfax and Loudoun counties near Washington D.C. In addition, Dave Brat lost in VA-7. You may recall he claimed Eric Cantor’s old seat in a surprise win in a Republican primary. This win is very sweet for Democrats.

Unquestionably for Democrats, regaining control of the House of Representatives was the achievement of the night. This means the Affordable Care Act won’t be overturned and the many corruptions of the Trump Administration will get a serious investigation. There are likely other bombshells that Trump will have to deal with in the months ahead, most noticeably Special Council Robert Mueller’s reports. Impeachment is probably pointless since it won’t amount to conviction in the Senate, but investigations should fully expose Trump’s corruption and his tax returns are likely to get released.

Obviously the partisan wars were not solved last night. The next two years are likely to be even more divisive as Democrats regain some power. One hates to root for failure, but we are long overdue for an economic recession. Considering the trade sanctions, Trump did remarkably well in Red America. If he continues with his current policies though many Red State voters may finally smell the smelling salts in 2020. Some, like Kansas, have already awoken.