Occam's Razor

One thing has become clear to me: finding protection from covid-19 from herd immunity isn’t going to happen, or won’t happen until much, much later in the pandemic when it becomes moot. That horse has left the barn, so to speak.

The reasons are many. Here in the United States it was because enough of us didn’t get vaccinated quickly enough, even though the vaccines were there well before they were in the past, and were much more effective than usual. Elsewhere it was a combination of not having quite effective-enough vaccines or, more likely, inability to get the vaccine. The latter is the case in most of the third world.

The virus causing covid-19 is nearly everywhere and if it isn’t where you are, it’s only a matter of time. The good news is that the vaccinated among us, and even many unvaccinated people, won’t acquire symptoms. We’ll still breathe the stuff in and it will infect us, we’re just not going to notice. But many of us who are vaccinated will still acquire the disease, but its symptoms will be relatively mild. It will feel like the flu, you might lose a sense of taste for a while, but probably won’t last as long as the flu. That’s the second best case. Most likely both my wife and me will suffer this fate at some point. Most likely so will you. In a way, it’s a pretty good, if inconvenient fate.

The virus is becoming endemic, and will become endemic. It will become part of nature and just another virulent microbe out there to join with all the others, just one that will kill millions of people and sicken tens or hundreds of millions of us in the short term. In time, we and our children will probably adapt to it. For the next several years at least though at best it’s going to be an inconvenience. Expect periodic booster shots to hopefully immunize you from the latest covid variants. Expect more testing, more occasional outbreaks, and bouts of on-again off-again mask wearing. Expect more working from home.

And expect more disease. Children under twelve don’t have a vaccine yet, though that will probably change within a few months. As they are all heading back to school, it’s going to spread at about the rate the chicken pox spreads, but maybe less if kids managed to stay masked while in school. Right now they are an emerging conduit for the disease. I’d say the unvaccinated are too, except they are hardly an emerging conduit. They have been spreading the disease for a long time.

To some extent it will also be people like me who are vaccinated who will also spread the disease, simply by breathing it in and exhaling the virus if we’re infected but symptomless. That’s why public health officials encourage (and in some cases demand) masking in public spaces, even by the vaccinated. Our city is now requiring masking in public indoor spaces again. A year ago it was a hassle, but now I nearly don’t think about it. There’s an emergency mask in my car in case I forget, and when I go anywhere I slip a mask into my pocket in case I need it.

This will all be the new normal. The good news is that in time we’ll get inured to it. Five years from now most of us won’t understand why there were so many anti-maskers out there, and those who were anti-maskers will probably deny they were. Also coming will be more requirements to get a covid-19 vaccine. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will soon formally approve these vaccines (their emergency status will be removed), giving broad sanction to employers and public health agencies to require it. In some places like New York City you effectively have a “vaccinated-only” club. You will have to show proof of vaccination in order to dine indoors or attend a concert of play. We’ll be seeing two show on Broadway next month, and have already been informed we must show proof of vaccination to get inside.

So you can expect the hassle of being unvaccinated will continue. It is likely, particularly after these vaccines get final approval, that even some of the most virulent anti-vaccine adherents out there will get vaccinated. Life will become too inconvenient to be unvaccinated. In some places you are seeing open resentment and scorn by the vaccinated at the unvaccinated. Peer pressure may allow us to reach herd immunity. It’s just that it’s happening so slowly that if it happens it’s likely to feel moot.

The unvaccinated are effectively slowly taking themselves out of the gene pool. Those who haven’t died but acquired the disease live with its affects, some of which may turn out to be lifelong, reducing their probable lifespan and quality of life. Survival requires adaption, either through vaccination or being one of the lucky unvaccinated ones who won’t show symptoms.

Hopefully as a result of all this we’ll learn some lessons and the next time a pandemic strikes we’ll not only be more resilient but naturally inclined to follow the advice of our public health professionals.