Occam's Razor

The retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy, while not surprising, nonetheless has stirred up a hornet’s nest. Our only swing justice, it means that anyone Trump nominates is very likely to vote reliably conservative. Obviously this has huge implications, the most obvious of which is that Roe v. Wade is now under serious jeopardy. A 5-4 conservative court won’t wait long before accepting a case that will give antiabortionists the win they’ve been craving since 1973. Women are going to become chattel again, at least in some states that have decided that even before three months of pregnancy they don’t have the right to control their own pregnancies.

Such a court though is unlikely to declare that abortion is unconstitutional nationwide. Rather, it will give states permission to outlaw abortion within their boundaries. States like Texas have already made it impractical for most women to get abortions, so in some cases this won’t change too much. Abortion should still be available to those with the means to cross state lines. Of course, the women conservatives most want to disempower are those who are poorest, which should be odd because at the same time they will expect these women to support these children they will be forced to bear with little in the way of government help.

There will be plenty of other ways that a conservative court will make the vast majority of us unhappy. And the conservative majority could easily grow, as its liberal members tend to skew toward the older side. As bad as Kennedy’s retirement is for progressives, it could have been worse. Instead of Kennedy, it could have been Justices Ginsburg (85) or Steven Breyer (79) that opted to retire instead, or simply died in office. In his last year, Justice Kennedy has been no friend of progressives.

The script has been memorized; the die has been cast. We know how the next few months are likely to unfold. Trump will pick some nominee off his ultra conservative list and is likely to do it sooner rather than later. Senate Majority Leader McConnell will bend over backward to move the nomination for a vote ASAP, bypassing the Judiciary Committee if possible. There is a little hope that the Senate will ultimately vote against the nomination. Senator John McCain presumably won’t make it back to Washington to vote one way or the other, and may pass away during the interim. So in theory just one Republican senator breaking ranks could undo the nomination. Senators like Maine’s Susan Collins or Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski are possible swing voters. At best, the Democrats’ odds are 50:50. Trump could dramatically improve his odds by nominating someone just a tad mainstream. In a way, it’s better for Democrats if he doesn’t, providing the nominee ultimately fails to be confirmed.

So everyone is hoping a nomination will fail and that somehow Democrats can hang on through the election and retake the Senate. At best the odds for Democrats is turning the Senate are 50:50 too, so this is quite a long shot as well. If they control the Senate though they definitely control the nomination process as well. That’s their best shot at replacing Kennedy with someone similar to him.

Since McConnell created a new rule that deferred action on President Obama’s nominee, should Democrats regain the Senate then they will be under pressure to get even. One idea going around is that Trump’s nominee should be denied consideration because Trump is under active criminal investigation. If you believe in the Law of Karma, it would be appropriate for a Democratic Senate to refuse to vote on a Supreme Court nomination until the 2020 election. Democrats though aren’t very good at being evil. Republicans though have perfected it.

And that’s what this nomination is all about, really: the culmination of decades of work by Republicans to gain ultimate power while consistently ranking up a minority of votes nationwide. At best their approach has been morally dubious. Republicans have been ruthless, taking a mile when they should have taken an inch. They had no qualms about gerrymandering districts to the extreme and openly suppressing the voting rights of those who are likely to vote against them. Justice Kennedy helped cement these oversized privileges with recent votes on gerrymandering cases that came before the court. Ultimate power though rests not in the presidency or in Congress, but in the courts because of federal judges receive lifetime appointments.

Democrats’ hope of course is for a blue wave this November. Democrats were already fully engaged but this retirement will only add to their animus. It may also bring Republicans out to vote disproportionately too. The case for Democratic control of Congress though only grows as a result of this retirement. The already high stakes have grown even higher.

Our cacophonic political scene already deafening is going to grow even louder as the amp now gets cranked up to 11.